Wall Street analysts say it is likely that the crude oil market will move higher in the coming months.
International benchmark Brent oil price in the last session of the week (July 2) was at 75.76 USD/barrel, down 0.11%. By the end of June, the price of oil futures delivery has increased by more than 45% compared to the level of 51.8 USD/barrel on January 1.
Meanwhile, the US WTI oil price traded at 74.28 USD/barrel, down 0.1%. Generally in the first 6 months of the year, the price of WTI oil has increased by more than 51.4%.
In June alone, the price of Brent oil increased by more than 8%, while the price of WTI oil increased by more than 10% to reach the highest level since October 2018.
Analysts attributed the rise in oil prices to a combination of factors, including the deployment of a Covid-19 vaccine, the easing of lockdown measures, and the OPEC+ production cuts.
Forecasting the upcoming oil price trend, Goldman Sachs said that the average Brent oil price could reach above $80/barrel in the third quarter with a sudden high increase when demand increases again.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan expects crude oil prices to climb to $80/barrel in the last three months of the year.
Bank of America analysts are even more optimistic that Brent could hit $100 a barrel next summer, marking a return to triple-digit prices for the first time since last year. 2014.
Even the three main forecasters of world energy prices, OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration, expect oil demand to accelerate in the second half of this year.
Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM Oil associates, said the decline in regional and global inventories this year has supported oil prices. "This trend will continue in the last months of the year," he said.
According to him, the rally will end if central banks suddenly raise interest rates due to inflation concerns or in the event that OPEC increases output above demand or when Iran returns to the market.
However, Mr. Varga said that the prospect of OPEC + not balancing supply and demand in the market and Iran exporting oil to the market is very unlikely at this time.
However, there are still many uncertain factors for oil prices to continue to move up. The spread of the delta variant Covid-19 is worsening globally, raising fears that oil demand will fall. Meanwhile, the potential for Iranian oil to flow into the market remains unclear.
Still, Morgan Stanley believes Brent prices will trade between $75 per barrel and $80 per barrel through mid-2022.
On July 1, OPEC and non-OPEC countries, an energy alliance known as OPEC+, delayed a decision to increase oil production. Sources told Reuters that the UAE had rejected plans to ease supply cuts.
